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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-05-05T08:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-05-05T08:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24943/-1
CME Note: Halo CME associated with M2.1 flare from AR13296 (N15E30). From LASSOS team discussion: Arrival on 5/7 is indicated by a sheath crossing and high field strength. No flux rope is observed in this signature. (There could even be 2 iCMEs in this signature, potentially merged). Another candidate CME for this arrival could be 2023-05-04T09:09Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-07T13:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-07T16:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

Simulation input parameters:

CME #1
CME Event ID: A9398
Start Date/Time: 2023-05-05 07:24:00Z 
Latitude: -1Â°
Longitude: -32Â°
Half Angle: 19Â°
Radial Velocity: 928 km/s

CME #2
CME Event ID: A9401
Start Date/Time: 2023-05-05 08:48:00Z 
Latitude: 12Â°
Longitude: -28Â°
Half Angle: 66Â°
Radial Velocity: 495 km/s

Notes:

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2023 May 06 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was moderate. Region 3297 (N08E29, Ekc/beta) produced an
impulsive M1.2/1n flare at 05/1531 UTC. Later on in the period, Region
3296 (N16E13, Eki/beta) produced a C2.8 flare at 06/0042 UTC with a Type
II sweep (689 km/s shock velocity) and a Type IV radio emission. Both
Regions 3296 and 3297, in addition to Regions 3293 (N10E02, Dai/beta),
3294 (S08E24, Hsx/alpha) and 3299 (S06E47, Cao/beta), showed little
structural change.

After modeling the CMEs from both the C9.5 flare at 05/0706 UTC from
Region 3297 and the M2.1 flare at 05/0801 UTC from Region 3296, analysis
suggested an Earth-directed component arriving at Earth midday to late
on 07 May and continuing into 08 May.
    
...

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels through 06/0024 UTC.
After 06/0024 UTC, wind parameters increased dramatically. Total field
increased from 4 to 19 nT, the Bz component varied southward from 2 to
15 nT, total field increased to 37 pp/cm and wind speed increased from
320 km/s to a peak of about 550 km/s. The phi orientation was variable
after about 05/2045 UTC. This increase in activity was due to possible
CME influence observed early on 02 May.

.Forecast...
An enhanced solar wind environment is anticipated for the duration of
the forecast period. Waning CME influence and positive-polarity CH HSS
influence is expected on 06 May with CH HSS effects continuing through
08 May from two positive polarity coronal hole features. Further
enhanced conditions are likely midday to late on 07 May and continuing
into 08 May from Earth-directed CMEs associated with the flare activity
mentioned above.

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2023 May 06 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 06-May 08 2023 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 06-May 08 2023

             May 06       May 07       May 08
00-03UT       4.67 (G1)    3.00         5.33 (G1)
03-06UT       6.00 (G2)    3.67         6.00 (G2)
06-09UT       3.67         3.00         5.67 (G2)
09-12UT       4.33         3.00         5.00 (G1)
12-15UT       3.33         3.33         4.33     
15-18UT       2.00         4.33         4.00     
18-21UT       2.67         4.67 (G1)    4.00     
21-00UT       3.00         5.00 (G1)    4.00     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 07-08 May, and G2
(Moderate) storms are likely on 08 May, due to a combination of coronal
hole high speed stream and CME effects.

Lead Time: 28.17 hour(s)
Difference: -2.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) on 2023-05-06T09:10Z

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